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Kalabagh dam: benefits outweigh the costs
Prof Syed Ali Rizwan
While the technical issues and concerns raised by the upper and lower reparians have been resolved, the socio-political factors remain unsolved to date, and are being exploited by those having vested interests
Out of the 100% water available in various forms, about 99% is not economically available, and only 1% of available surface water if used properly is enough for the entire planet. Let us see what we have done with this resource, which was available to Pakistan at the time of independence in the form of the rivers Sutlej, Bias, Ravi, Chenab Jhelum and Indus.
According to the Indus Basin Treaty signed in 1960 between Pakistan and India, we had to surrender the three eastern rivers of Sutlej, Bias and Ravi, and were allowed to build reservoirs and dams on the remaining three. Therefore, Pakistan accepted an unjust principle of replacing perennial stream water, with man-made reservoir water, which had inherent complications.
Today, we are faced with acute water shortage, and are facing the El Nino effect as well, due to climatic changes resulting from the elimination of certain biological organisms. Our population growth rate is nearly around 3%, which is highest in the world. It is expected that by the year 2025, Pakistan would become the fourth most populous country in the world. Imagine how hard it would become to feed such a big population with the shortage of resources, when we are already facing problems in providing basic necessities to the existing ones.
Issues of population, environment, bio-diversity and depletion of the ozone layer were discussed at the Rio World Summit conference in Brazil, held about a decade ago. It described that about 40% plus of the world population lives below poverty line. The share of poorest states in the world trade is only around 4%, which presently is about 2%. An estimated 40% plus people in the world have no access to electricity. The recently concluded Earth Summit in Johannesburg discussed, more or less, the same agenda.
America has built more than 10,000 dams, while India and China have about 100 multi-purpose storage facilities. These countries have made tremendous progress in agricultural and industrial sectors mainly due to the availability of these multi-purpose dams, which supply irrigation water and power for their industries. The developed countries do not wish that underdeveloped/developing countries should be able to exploit their natural resources, and thus remain dependent on them in some form--a typical application of master and slave theory. So they have started raising objections on starting mega-scale developmental projects on flimsy bases, including environment and other social issues etc. Whenever such projects are discussed in developing countries, efforts are made to stop and prevent them from making dams to exploit natural resources for the progress of their poor people.
Since independence, India has been creating problems for Pakistan in terms of the natural resources, for instance the Indus Basin Treaty and now a barrage on river Chenab, through which India would be able to stop or regulate water flow to Pakistan whenever it desires against the provisions of the treaty. On river Jhelum we have already built Mangla dam, which provides electricity and irrigation water for the entire country, through a network of barrages and link canals etc. Leaving these two rivers, the only other dependable source which seems to be outside the grip of India is the river Indus, over which we have already built Tarbela dam, which stores only 15% of its water obtained mainly through snow melts.
The lake of Tarbela is silting heavily and this silt load is estimated at 554,000 tons per day. This amount of silt cannot be taken out from any reservoir; even if it is supposedly taken out, the problem would be where and how to store it. A silt delta has been formed in the reservoir having a width between 31-65kms and 68 meters deep, located at 14kms from the main embankment due to the sedimentation process. Wapda has been able to contain the movement of this silt delta so far, which otherwise could have moved in and choked all power generating turbines due to the seismic activity in the area. The danger is still there and in this regard Tarbela will not be able to serve as a multi-purpose reservoir and will only be suitable for irrigation purposes.
It is stated that even if Basha dam were brought online today, it would take at least 20 years to build it. In the mean time, usefulness of Tarbela would have gone. The only economic option left at our disposal is Kalabagh dam, which is already late and has become controversial mainly due to the socio-political misunderstandings, misgivings and apprehensions amongst the people of various provinces.
Ironically, all the governments starting from late Z A Bhutto, in order to lengthen their stay in power, have always avoided this technically feasible and economically sound option, which was declared to be a better site than Tarbela in the 1960s. Tarbela was brought on line first due to political considerations and preferences. It is, therefore, natural to think that national interests have been compromised, jeopardised and manipulated for the sake of a handful of people with personal interest.
By year 2050, about 2/3 of the world population could be plagued by water scarcity. It is interesting that while water scarcity is becoming severe, yet in most water-scare regions large quantities of water flow into the sea remain unutilised.
The constraints in the implementation of Kalabagh dam can be described as technical and socio-political. Almost all technical issues and concerns raised by the upper and lower reparians have been taken care of in the shape of design adjustments, while the socio-political factors remain unsolved to date, and are being exploited by those having vested interests.
Apprehensions of upper reparians included fear of flooding of Peshawar valley and Nowshera, with negative impact on the drainage in areas of Mardan, Pabbi, Swabi and Mardan SCARP, along with the submergence of fertile land in reservoir area coupled with population displacements. Lower reparians feared desertification of Sindh, non-availability of surplus water to fill the Kalabagh reservoir, negative effects on cultivation of riverian areas, sea water intrusion, mangrove forests and diminishing of fish resources below Kotri. They have been fully analysed by Wapda and almost all of them are not sustainable considering the magnitude of benefits available to a large population of this country.
Benefits also include availability of water for entire Rabi, sowing and maturing of Kharif crops, 3,600MW electricity and flood alleviation between downstream and Indus-Punjab confluence. The Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 reflects consensus of all the four provinces over issues of new storage on Indus and other rivers. This should serve as a starting point for the construction of the Kalabagh dam.
The World Bank has funded projects like SCARP and NDP, which were to the tune of billions of dollars, but they failed to bring about desired economic benefits to Pakistan, because of wrong assumptions, malpractices and essential long-term anti-Muslim interests of the World Bank. WTO will also pursue its plan in 2003, calling for an access to free markets. This will again suit those who have cheaper energy. Only their products, which are invariably backed by ISO certifications, will be able to sell in open international markets. Pakistan is likely to get affected with this intensely because we do not have cheap energy available for our agricultural and industrial sectors. Our products would be out of competition resulting in closures of industry and damage to our agro-base. In future there will be less exports and heavier imports. We can very well imagine our country's position at that time.
There is no denying the fact that in addition to bringing down population growth rate and making Kalabagh dam, other feasible reservoir sites must also be exploited to utilise the invaluable Indus water, for irrigation and power generation, which flows almost unused into the Arabian Sea during summers. This is our lifeline and the only option for our economic survival.
Salient factors of
Kalabagh dam project
Total storage 7.9MAF
Lime storage 6.1MAF
Ultimate installed
capacity 3,600MW
Energy generation
per annum 11,413GWH
Unit cost per
generation Rs0.63
Courtesy The News
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