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FAS Daily Attache Report Digest
May 20, 2004

FAS Daily Attache Report Digest

Annual

NIGERIA, May 20, 2004 -- Nigeria's lint exports over the last two years have increased in response to the GON's Export Expansion Grant introduced in 2001. However, domestic lint output has not kept pace with growth in demand by the local textile industry and export market. Textile manufacturers are currently grappling with scarcity and record high lint prices. The modest recovery recorded by the textile sector in recent years is now threatened as some manufacturers have had to suspend operations. In January 2004, the GON banned all textile imports to protect local producers and reduced its Export Expansion Grant on lint from 40 percent to five percent to boost domestic availability.

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Semi Annual

MEXICO, May 20, 2004 -- On December 24, 2003, Mexico (SAGARPA) banned imports of live cattle and bovine products following the detection of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in Washington State. Mexico's ban on imports of live cattle and bovine products did not apply to milk, dairy products, embryos and semen. These products may be imported to Mexico without hindrance.

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Coffee Update

COTE D'IVOIRE, May 20, 2004 -- Post has revised upwards its 2000/2001 and 2001/2002 production estimates. Previous Post estimates included only marketed production, which is the portion of farmers' harvest actually sold. Farmers sold over 98 percent of then total harvest before the advent of price crisis, which became pronounced starting in the 2000/2001 marketing year. Farmers' sales dropped by 15 and 13 percent respectively for the two marketing years 200/2001 and 2001/2002.

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Annual

COTE D'IVOIRE, May 20, 2004 -- Post forecasts 2004/2005 coffee production to continue to be down due to persistent producer price deterioration, a lingering unstable political situation and increasing farm neglect.

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Annual

PHILIPPINES, May 20, 2004 -- Philippine coffee production is forecast to decline in MY 2003-04 as a result of low yield and senility of existing coffee trees. Due to declining domestic production, coffee imports are expected to remain high to meet nearly half of the country's growing demand. Coffee buying prices (Robusta) increased by 36 percent in 2003.

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Annual

MALAYSIA, May 20, 2004 -- Tobacco has dropped from being America's second largest ag export item in 2002 to the fifth largest ag export item to Malaysia in 2003. Due to new import regulations, leaf imports plummeted in 2003. Outlook for leaf imports in 2004 is even less promising in order to meet the GOM's new requirement of using 70 percent domastic leaves. Post expects cigarette output to drop 7 to 8% in 2003.

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Annual

EU-25, May 20, 2004 -- EU-25 grain production is set to rebound in MY 04/05 with production rising 41 MMT to 271 MMT (wheat plus coarse grains). The increased domestic availability of grain will likely see exports, feed use and stocks return to trend level, though import requirements are forecast to decline to just 6.8 MMT from 14.6 MMT and 15.4 MMT in 03/04 and 02/03. This is due to good domestic availability as well as TRQs effectively limiting barley and feed quality wheat imports. However, U.S. exports of high quality wheat to the EU are forecast to be 1.3 MMT in 04/05, the same level as in 02/03.

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Rice Weekly Update

VIETNAM, May 20, 2004 -- The price of Vietnamese 25% broken rice firmed-up in early May due to the Philippines's rice tender.

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Annual

PHILIPPINES, May 20, 2004 -- With Philippine raw cotton production supplying less than 3 percent of total domestic cotton requirements, the Philippines will continue to rely on imports to meet domestic demand in MY 2004-05 and beyond. The United States is likely to remain the largest supplier of combed cotton, followed by Pakistan, Australia and South Africa. With the end of the quota system for garments starting in 2005, domestic cotton consumption is forecast to decline next year. The garments and textile sector is the single largest buyer of raw cotton and the garments sector is country's second highest export earner.

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Annual

UKRAINE, May 20, 2004 -- Oilseed production in Ukraine in 2004 is expected to decrease slightly following last year's record sunflower crop. Lower production and crush will result in lower exports of sunflowerseed and oil while vegetable oil consumption is anticipated to increase reflecting higher consumer incomes. U.S. soybean meal will most likely continue to lose market share in Ukraine in MY 2004/2005 due to strong price competition from South American and Western European suppliers, despite a forecasted increase in import demand.

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Annual

INDONESIA, May 20, 2004 -- As a result of continued low prices, growing production costs, and declining productivity, Indonesia's coffee production is forecast to continue falling through 2004/05. Given the expectations for lower domestic supplies, exports are forecast to decline as well. The low returns have discouraged investment and expansion in Indonesia's coffee sector, and prospects for any rebound remain dim. One bright area has been in production of specialty coffees, which obtain a premium on the international market. However, these niche market type coffees comprise a small proportion of Indonesia's total production.

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Establishment of State Phytosanitary Administration

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, May 20, 2004 -- The Bosnia and Herzegovina Council of Ministers recently established a State Phytosanitary Administration. The Administration has yet to be organized and staffed. However, it will be in charge of drafting regulations, improving plant health protection, policy issues, serving as the enquiry point and representing BiH internationally. The Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations will be the umbrella organization for the Administration.

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Annual

AUSTRALIA, May 20, 2004 -- The 2004/05 season is expected to see the Australian cotton industry recover somewhat from the negative impacts of the drought that began in 2002/03. However, cotton production is forecast to remain below levels experienced prior to the drought. Exports are forecast to rise in 2004/05, in line with higher production. Post forecasts stocks to continue to be drawn down, which along with higher production, will permit the first rise in exports since 2000/01.

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