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A bumper cotton crop to boost
economic growth
By Zafar Samdani
Federal government officials were quoted in December 2003 as
saying that measures for raising cotton output to 15 million
bales by 2010 were being adopted.
 Without
a step being taken in that direction, the crop has crossed
13.2 million bales this year before the final count; it may
touch the 15 million bales by the time crop arrivals are
over.
But there are questions about the crop. It should be time
for keeping fingers crossed instead of going for premature
celebrations because the quality of the crop is yet not
determined.
Some of the measures enumerated by officials in 2003 were:
higher support price for seed cotton, comprehensive cotton
research programme focusing on productivity enhancement,
evolving high yield and quality varieties, availability of
graded seed, high priority to production of contamination
free cotton and introduction of standardization and grading
to improve quality.
Most of these measures are still either awaiting
finalization or implementation while decline has set in with
regard to some areas like research. An important research
programme was discontinued and much of the current crop is
being attributed to previously produced virus resistant seed
that may be on its last stretch because of its limited
period of productivity; more varieties of tested new seed
are not there to replace it.
Meanwhile, great dividends are expected from the current
crop. That is not without reason because cotton plays a
central role in the national economy. But counting of
chickens has actually begun even before eggs were placed for
hatching.
A government official recently declared that the crop would
help raise GDP to seven percent. It should make a
significant contribution-one hopes it does, but numerous
factors need to be considered before actual benefits can be
collected.
The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) was assigned to
intervene in the cotton sector to ensure fair payment to
growers. It dealt with ginners to tie that end. That is
understandable because procurement of seed cotton is the
ginneries field; TCP is not qualified for managing it.
However, in the process, it simply served as a vehicle for
changing ownership of phutti.
It went around the job on the basis of support price for
phutti but the growers weren't given that rate, except
possibly in the case of influential landowners who may have
sold sub- standard phutti to TCP.
It's purchase rate was Rs2,159 per 40 kg of lint while world
wide rate was Rs1,862 for the same quantity. What made it go
for procurement at substantially lower rates is anybody's
guess.
There also are reports that lint TCP purchased may have been
low grade at least in a few cases. The possibility is
concretized by two developments. One: the bidders cold
response to tenders for sale of lint by the organization;
the highest rates quoted by bidders were quite low.
And two: reports about TCP's intervention costing the
exchequer about Rs4 billion. The government would know how
deeply and lethally that would cut in to expected profits.
Another query floating around the cotton sector is linked to
prices in the market.
It is said that a percentage of the crop may comprise cotton
with reduced ginning outlet because plants in some fields
grew 'under stress' due to scuttled maturity period-
maturing in 28 days instead of standard duration of 48 days.
This, according to cotton sector experts, affected the
strength of the fibre and reduced its worth in a market that
plays it stingily to the last penny.
Some of the experts view the bulk of TCP's bargains as
consisting of lower grade cotton. Market reports confirm
that a substantial percentage TCP procured lint has been
obtained from a crop that was lower than the contracted
grade. This may help explain TCP's initial proposal to put
export on hold and the government's decision against
exporting procured stocks.
A loss of about Rs4 billion has thus been caused by TCP's
intervention to safeguard the interests of the farmers. One
may have ignored this colossal and criminal act if growers
had benefited.
That they have not. Government sources have themselves
conceded failure in ensuring payment to growers at official
support price. Initially, the government kept All Pakistan
Textile Mills Association (Aptma) at a distance from TCP's
lint.
The policy was later revised to allow its members to
participate in bidding if local bidders offered the same
price as foreign customers. But even that, it seems, was not
to be because Aptma's total commitment to profit making.
Aptma comprises highly professional businessmen whose
priority is profit. One cannot question that attitude
because mill owners are not in the field for fun and in any
case, the sector has lived a pampered life so far.
There seems no reason why it should alter course because it
is as affectively represented in decision-making level as
owners of sugar or flour mills or edible oil importers and,
for that matter, any other special interest group.
Which means that lint procured by TCP is either likely to
rot in stores or it would be sold at a heavy loss to the
government. The argument for building buffer stocks for the
next year is neither here nor there. It is nothing more than
crude sop for public consumption and an attempt at hiding
inefficiency, if not worse acts of commission and omission.
This also suggests that quality cotton could well be in
short supply in the current year's bumper crop. Hopefully,
that would not happen at a massive scale but it is an
eventuality that can be postponed indefinitely if earnest,
authentic and professionally required remedial measures,
most of them enumerated two years back, are not urgently
adopted.
More than anything else, there is great need for research
for producing seed for new resistant and high yield
varieties because those currently cultivated may be reaching
optimum productive period and reviving research for BT gene
to produce high quality fibre.
The government must realize the need for enhancing water
utilization efficiency in view of continuously shrinking of
water resources. Further more, weather may not always be as
sympathetic for crop development as it was this year.
So, the maxim effort has to be made for harnessing factors
within the control of the managers of Pakistan's
agriculture. The implementation of the agenda announced in
2003 cannot be postponed anymore. It must be pursued at top
speed before the next crop is cultivated.
Hoping for high crops without creating basic conducive
conditions may bail out officials but that is bound to
undermine productivity of the agriculture sector. Such a
thing happening to the cotton crop would be simply
disastrous for the economy, a fact well known by the
government.
Courtesy: The DAWN
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Pakissan.com;
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