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Special
Reports/Water Crisis |
Cost of building water reservoirs
By Rasheed Channa
THE Planning Commission of Pakistan claims to have brokered a
consensus report prepared by a high-level committee
constituted under the secretary, ministry of water & power
on major water reservoirs, including Kalabagh dam. In the
joint post CDWP press briefing on Jan 27 the spokesmen for
the commission, in reply to a question, admitted that some
minor irritants were raised by some provinces which they
hoped would be resolved in due course of time.
 Without
knowing the contents of such an enigmatic report presented
to the Central Development Party (CDWP), when senior level
officers of other ministries and provinces present in the
said meeting, were reportedly shown the door out, some
section of the press carried common perceptions of the lower
riparian Sindh and NWFP provinces. The Technical Committee
on water resources appointed by President Musharraf under
its Chairman A.N.G. Abbasi submitted its report in August
2005.
No matter, how the policy makers circumvent the truth
unfolded under both reports, the president, as well his
associates could not shy away with the single most factor
e.g. availability of water in the Indus system. In this
regard for those who may not have read the Technical
Committee Report as yet, must bear in mind that not to speak
of water for any new dam; we are still short by 14 million
acre feet (MAF) for the existing uses under the prevalent
Water Accord of 1991. The water calculations made in the
report are based on the data provided not only by the
members of the Technical Committee, but also the Wapda – the
linchpin in bringing series of miseries to the lower
riparian Sindh.
The truth about much trumpeted 35 MAF water going into sea
as waste is that the data of Indus River flow shows that out
of 27 years, the down stream Kotri escapages were recorded
for only 11 years. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA)
during last summer floods (2006) had categorically held that
“20 MAF flows downstream Kotri during the season should not
be treated as waste”. Independent experts suggest that
environmentally and otherwise these were essential on two
counts. First, Water Accord of 1991 provides 10 MAF water
flows down Kotri Barrage, but unfortunately 150 km long
river course down Kotri, covering four districts of
Hyderabad, Jamshoro, Badin and Thatta did not receive a
single drop for the 2/3rd period affecting the agriculture,
fisheries even drinking water needs etc, of that vast area.
Second, the long awaited technical study by international
expert mandated under Water Accord 1991 has established the
requirements of 6.8 MAF flows down stream Kotri with flows
of four MAF all the time.
Unfortunately, the president himself has now started talking
about the “majority wanting Kalabagh” ignoring half a dozen
resolutions passed by the provincial assemblies against the
construction of that dam. For the people of Sindh and its
succeeding generations, the Kalabagh dam is the question of
life and death, because the Sindhis foresee hunger, abject
poverty ahead due to lesser water flows.
The other irritants every one living in Sindh shares equally
are the importance of filling criteria of dams keeping in
view the cropping pattern of the provinces beside operation
and regulation of such costly ventures so as to avoid the
prevalent manipulation of flood as well as regular flows in
the system.
The CDWP announcement also mentions about the Task Force
under Syed Salman Shah, advisor to the Prime Minister on
Finance, to explore financing as well funding requirements
of the large dams estimated to cost $17 billion or Rs1
trillion at the conversion rate of Rs61 per dollar.
The assigned hunt for money could be seen in the context of
current Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP 2006-07)
level, which has an outlay of Rs275 billion and with the
total cost of water sector projects, being Rs356.486 billion
and the current years allocation level of Rs 47.749 billion,
the water projects in hand are going to be completed in five
years i.e. by 2012-13, provided there are no cost over runs,
the phenomenon very common to WAPDA projects and that no new
projects are undertaken, which seems to be just out of
question.
Take the Kalabagh dam alone, it is now estimated to cost
Rs373.564 billion or $6.124 billion, including foreign
exchange component equivalent to Rs171.593 billion or $2.813
billion. Where as, according to project planning report of
KB dam consultants prepared in 1987, the cost was estimated
at Rs466.894 billion or $7.654 billion understandably some
components might have been changed by now. Moreover, if we
account for dollar-rupee parity (1 USD to 61 PKR) and the
cost of escalations since 1987 estimations, the Kalabagh dam
alone is going to cost the nation in the vicinity of over a
Rs1 trillion, i.e. $17.073 billion.
John Briscoe, Senior Advisor World Bank, while presenting
WB’s 2005 Water Strategy for Pakistan Dams, estimated the
cost at $15 billion or Rs915 billion. Put together, for the
president’s Water Vision Rs3-4 trillion are to be lined up
if the construction of all five dams is to be completed by
2016. This all seems to be too ambitious when PSDP is
targeted to the level of Rs2.5 trillion by year 2010 under
MTDF. It will, however, be a billion dollar question how
much of it will be devoured by the executing agencies in a
country recently ranked upwards at 144 corrupt by the
Transparency International.
The International River’s Network, an independent
organisation, has suggested some viable alternatives. It
says that brick-and-mortar investments in the centrally
managed dams were not the only way to address Pakistan’s
water related needs, but, the conservation and plugging the
leaks in the system, including, end to bureaucratic
manipulations and corruption. To substantiate further World
Bank evaluation found in 1996 suggests that water
conservation measures save more water than largest new dams
in Pakistan’s investment programme could have stored, and at
1/5th of the cost. Similarly, Asian Development Bank
estimates that and additional 4.7 MAF water could be
provided either by conservation measures at a cost of $1.7
billion or by new dam with a price tag of $4.5 billion.
In the end, one could only expect that the president should
push ahead his on-going water conservation plan by
accelerating the lining of water courses, channels and
distributaries in the country, costing over Rs100 billion,
which can always be increased, rather than creating rubbles
in the already charged atmosphere with the fresh elections
in sight, as the nation could hardly afford any social
tensions and conflict.
Courtesy :
The DAWN
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Pakissan.com;
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