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Taking the bull by the horns
By Nasir Jamal
If everything goes according to the script, Pakistan will
reap a record wheat crop next year. Farmers firmly believe
that the wheat output will surpass the official target of
22.50 million tons fixed for the next crop, which will be
ready for harvest in April.
 The
optimism about the next wheat yield stems from favourable
weather conditions as well as certain timely initiatives –
reduction in the prices of fertilizers(especially phosphate
and potash) and increase in the wheat support price –
recently announced by the government to help the farmers
partly cut down their input costs and offset the negative
impact of rising inflation.
The government initiative to slash the prices of
fertilisers, especially that of DAP, is expected help the
growers save approximately Rs12 billion over the next one
year in the shape of reduced expense on inputs.
Wheat growers will benefit the most as a result of the cut
in the prices as they use about 60 per cent of the total
fertilisers sold for both Rabi and Kharif crops. In
addition, the lower prices will encourage the farmers to
increase the use of fertilisers, particularly DAP that
pushes up the final crop yield.
The decision to increase the wheat support price to Rs425
per maund for the next crop from Rs415 per maund last season
is likely to make the farmers richer by Rs1.65 billion,
according to AgriForum chairman Ibrahim Mughal. The net
benefit that the wheat farmers are going to reap from these
two government decisions is going to be around Rs8.5 billion
or more.
The government’s decisions to facilitate the growers for a
better wheat yield are apparently driven by three
considerations:
1) Pakistan wants to raise its wheat output to 30 million
tons by 2015; 2) Islamabad needs agriculture to grow by 4.5
per cent so that the overall GDP growth rate target of seven
per cent fixed for the current financial year is achieved;
and, 3) The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shaukat
Aziz will be going into elections towards the end of 2007
and will require the support of farmers if it wishes to
return to power.
The wheat output target fixed for 2006-07 is up by about 0.8
million tons from the last year’s production of 21.7
million tons. This year farmers are expected to grow wheat
on 20.903 million acres – 15.93 million acres in Punjab,
2.27 million acres in Sindh, 1.88 million acres in the NWFP
and 0.83 million acres in Balochistan. This compares with
20.53 million acres of land brought under wheat cultivation
during last year.
Farmers say the area to be brought under cultivation of
wheat will also surpass the official target because of wet
weather that actually encouraged farmers in the Barani areas
in Sindh as well as Punjab to start sowing since the first
half of this month. The wet weather conditions will also
help improve the final output of the crop.
The national average wheat yield per acre too is estimated
to rise to 27 maunds per acre this year from last year’s
26.43 maunds. Though it looks like an ambitious target if
the past is anything to go by, it still is achievable in
view of the positive steps taken by the government to
encourage the wheat sowing.
The wheat yield per acre is highest in Sindh (30 maunds)
followed by Punjab (27.94 maunds), Balochistan (21 maunds)
and the NWFP (16.66 maunds).
If everything goes right, Pakistan, which will begin the
next wheat harvest with a carry-over stock of over one
million tons, will have at least two million tons of
surplus.
The government’s recent initiatives like increasing
procurement price to encourage wheat production in the
country apart, farmers in Punjab strongly favour reduction
in their input costs. “The increase in the wheat
procurement price is good. But higher procurement price
always leads inflation to rise, ultimately impacting
negatively on the input costs. Therefore, the government
must ensure that the farmers’ expense on inputs is
reduced,’ says Mughal.
“There are around one million tube-wells and 425,000
tractors that will be operating during wheat sowing and
afterwards. The government must slash the rates of diesel
and electricity, which form a major part of the farmers’
input expense, required to operate tube-wells and
tractors,’ says Mughal.
He says the wheat output can be increased manifold if the
government ensures increase in the availability of certified
seed. At present only 14-15 per cent certified seed is
available with the public and private sector. “Ideally,
20-25 per cent of the total seed used should be certified
,’ he says.
Besides, he says, weeds are a big threat to the crop and
cause a loss of 15-20 per cent in the final outcome in
addition to adding to input costs as farmers have to use
greater quantity of fertilisers than is required.
“Should the government provide easy, long-term credit to
farmers for purchasing herbicides to fight the threat of
weeds, we can substantially increase our output. Total
amount required to fight the threat of weeds will not be
more than Rs4 billion. But its ultimate benefit to the
economy will be greater than Rs20 billion. Should we
increase our per acre yield by one maund, farmers will get
an additional Rs8.8 billion. You can imagine the kind of
impact it will leave on their lives.’
Farmers also fear that the surplus crop will bring its own
old problems with it and increase their post-harvest losses
as the government’s procurement is slow and inefficient.
“The government enters the market quite late. By the time
it comes into action, it is already too late for the hapless
farmers who do not have arrangements to store their produce.
They are forced to sell their produce at discounted rates,
far less than the official procurement price, just to make
sure that it is not wasted,’ says Mughal.
“The government needs to start addressing these issues –
input costs as well as post-harvest difficulties faced by
growers in selling their crop – right away. If it is done
and these issues addressed properly, we can become a
permanent wheat exporting country to such destinations as
Iran, Turkey, India, Afghanistan, etc in the years to
come,” he says.
But the question is: “Who is going to take the bull by
horns?’
Courtesy: The DAWN
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Pakissan.com;
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