According to USDA estimates, wheat stocks in the top eight exporters (Australia, Argentina, Canada, the EU, the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) will close the 2018/19 season at some 55 MMT, i.e. at the lowest level since MY 2013/14. At the same time, the U.S. share in this volume will set a few-year record of 48%, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Compared with the U.S. and other wheat suppliers, Ukraine’s share in total closing stocks has been falling rapidly since MY 2015/16 in view of brisk exports.
Despite a crop decline, Ukrainian exporters are making every effort to retain their position in key markets, selling the commodity mostly in the first half of the season. So, in July-October 2018/19, Ukraine enhanced its presence in Asian countries such as Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, and competed there with the U.S., Australia, Canada, and Russia. Remarkably, Russia has only become competitive in Asian markets over the past couple seasons. Russian exporters had focused on Near Eastern and African markets before.
The main intrigue of the season is who will become the second biggest wheat exporter after Russia at the time. Will Canada and the U.S. manage to realize their high export potentials?
Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain” by UkrAgroConsult.
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By Olena Hesova – grain and oilseed markets analyst at “UkrAgroConsult ”