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Govt unlikely to meet agri growth targets


ISLAMABAD–The overall water crisis in the country will affect wheat yield and other agricultural crops during the current financial year, and the government is unlikely to achieve agricultural growth target of 2 per cent in the ongoing fiscal.

“The rain-fed (barani) agricultural areas can face losses in wheat yield during this year because of less rains and overall water crisis in Pakistan,” agricultural experts fear when The Nation contacted them to seek their comments.

But Agricultural Minister Khair Mohammad Junejo was quite confident that Pakistan would achieve desired agri crops targets in current financial year. He further said that the government was trying its level best to overcome prevailing water shortages and 10,000 tubewells would be built to improve agri sector in near future.

The Indus River System Authority has projected 51 per cent water shortage for current Rabi season, which was never witnessed in the history of Pakistan. Both the big provinces utilised more water in early days of Rabi season and shortage for irrigation reached 64 per cent and 60 per cent for Punjab and Sindh respectively.

“There is a need for rain in February 2002 in barani areas for having good wheat yield and Pakistan will face problems in achieving the desired target if it did not rain next month,” experts say. According to agri experts, the water storage capacity of 470 mini-dams and 940 ponds is alarming. Irrigating water capacity in 30 small dames built up by Small Dames Association, another agricultural wing of Punjab government for Potohar region, is exhausting.

Four small dams of these 30 such dams in Rawalpindi vicinity (Lehtarar, Fateh Jang, Chakri Road, Sangjani,Tarnol) face acute shortage of irrigation water. Officials in the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock say that barani areas recently witnessed slight rains which would show their positive effects. “There is still need for more rains and their shortage would affect wheat,” they added.

Potohar region shares the highest percentage of yield in total rain-fed production of this staple commodity. Traditionally Pakistan’s agricultural areas need an average 250 mm of rainfall during the month of January as minimum requirement to meet desired wheat targets, say agriculture experts.

In a situation when agricultural areas face overall 51 per cent water shortage, the factor of quantitative rainfall is likely to play a major adverse role in meeting wheat targets.
Light rainfall in parts of the country in January 2002 helped the germination process of the wheat crops in rain-fed areas.

Lahore region needs minimum 23.0-mm rain, Rawalpindi region, that mainly comprises rain-fed areas, requires an average 56.1 mm rain. Faisalabad, which is one of the major areas for wheat crop, requires an average rainfall of 11.5 mm and Multan needs at least 7.2-mm rainfall.

According to available rain figures, January 1999 had above normal rainfall that, according to experts, helped country relatively reduce its wheat import target from 2.3 million metric ton for the year 1998-1999 to 1.1 million metric ton for the year 1999-2000.

Similarly, the above-normal rainfall in January 2000 coupled with other factors made Pakistan self-sufficient in wheat after almost 17 years. Available rain figures (in millimeter) of last several years show that resurgence of rain spell in January helped Pakistan become a country self-sufficient in wheat production.

Over 35 per cent agricultural area of the country is rain-fed. However, its shares in overall wheat yield continues to remain fluctuated. Above-normal or normal rainfall in the barani areas, according to figures of previous years, showed a trend of increase in wheat produce and similarly low rainfall caused a food crisis-like situation in the country in 1997.

Glaring instance in this regard is April 1997 flour riots in NWFP which dragged the then Nawaz government into a big crisis with the killing of many persons in their struggle to get flour.

However, last year’s surplus wheat could help wheat managers meet the set target of this staple food this year, said an agricultural expert. “The government is trying to export surplus wheat but persistent water crisis may create problems for agri managers in the next couple of years to meet domestic requirements,” experts say.
Officials say that though Balochistan is hit with the worst effects of drought, recent Afghan crisis will create more problems in the province.

Balochistan produced 51.6 metric tons and 100 metric tons wheat in rain-fed area during harvesting year 1998-99 and 1998-97 respectively. The situation in rain-fed areas of Sindh and Balochistan will be affected.

Several districts of Sindh and Balochistan are still suffering because of drought – worst during the last 100 years.The artificial rain during rainy season did not work as almost all the cultivated crops have dried up at premature stage.

Courtesy The Nation, 28 January, 2002