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ISSUES
'Water water no where'
The fifty-four years of crisis management in Pakistan have
kept several pressing concerns of the country at bay. The most
central to all is the issue of water scarcity. Water resources
for Pakistan are shrinking and hence posing a serious threat
not only to the largely agriculture-based economy, but also to
the cohesion of the nation itself as a few think. Whenever
there is a water crisis, tempers soar among the provinces and
cast a bad shadow on the national integrity and morale.
But the administration in Islamabad has traditionally remained
deaf and blind to the seriousness of the issue. There is an
impression that the present government is no exception in this
regard.
The water scarcity and discord has already embittered
relations among the provinces. Now there are serious
indications that water will be a commodity more precious than
ever. The raining spell over Pakistan has recently entered
into its third 25-year long phase. In the first quarter
century of Pakistan's independence, the rains were below
average. Then started the high rain spell. And the third round
is characterised by marked reduction of rains. According to
the meteorologists, due to this and the La Nina weather
phenomenon, the country may face drought-like conditions
consistently in the coming years.
Meanwhile, Pakistan remains poorly equipped for the growing
needs. According to the government sources, the current
storage capacity is 17 million acre-feet and the annual demand
for irrigation water is over 100 million acre-feet.
According to a World Bank report on Pakistan's national
drainage programme, the current Irrigation network includes
three major storage reservoirs, namely Tarbela, Chasma, and
Mangla; 19 barrages, 12 inter-river canals, 43 independent
irrigation canal commands, and over 107,000 watercourses. The
combined length of canals is 61,000 kilometres. In addition,
watercourses farm channels, and field ditches cover another
1.6 million kilometres. Yet all this has not catered
substantially to the growing needs.
As is evident, the already existing water reservoirs are
silting heavily and desilting them is supposed to be a job too
onerous and expensive that the construction of new dams is
given priority. If the current pace continues, we may soon be
touching the level of pre-Tarbela level. The recent statistics
revealed by the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Tarbela
and Mangla Dams are already near their dead levels. Water at
Tarbela has reached a level of 1386 feet only 17 feet above
the dead level. Mangla is 68 feet higher than the said level
and Chashma is only one foot.
This water supply does not seem lasting for more than three
weeks and will stop by the early March. Although, this
situation may recover after one month as the water from
melting snow may come to rescue, it has already made it
evident the desperate situation our country is facing.
The dire situation has compelled many to debate the projects
like the Kalabagh Dam that has become dormant owing to certain
dissensions. Hesitating due to fear of controversies, the
government has not so far opened the Kalabagh Dam debate so
far. However, there are promises to build six new dams in the
coming years. It is important that these dams will take about
twenty years.
For the immediate requirement, we are told that nothing can be
done but to reduce our water consumption, which primarily
involves agriculture. In a country with a rudimentary
industrial infrastructure and firm base on agriculture, this
is an advice of suicidal proportions. While the consistent
governments have failed to deliver substantially in the field,
most regimes tend to blame their predecessors for the
country's ills leaving hardly anything improved on their exit.
The present government's commitment to resolve the Kalabagh
dam, the most crucial issue of water management today is
already invisible. While it must be considered that no one is
better placed than a military government to develop national
consensus on the issue, lack of courage has destroyed the
potential of any such contribution.
Then wrong aspirations seem over-shadowing the true
priorities. An utmost gift of the former federal minister for
environment Omar Asghar Khan is that he has gifted the concept
of small dams.
Since he hailed from the Potohar Plateau, he is convinced that
the smaller dams can be built throughout the country. Now this
approach seriously lacks a sense of geography and ignores the
fact that such dams may prove absolutely non-viable
considering the high costs of the construction and serious
limits for the output. It must be noted that one of the
responsibilities of the sitting government is to distance
itself from the lot that can technically be defined as quacks
in the field at least in the matters of such high influence.
Another such example is the government's failed-attempts to vertically
increase the size of the existing dams against the good advice
of the international experts.
While the government seems slightly aware of the gravity and
lack of awareness among the masses, no worth mentioning media
campaign has been embarked upon. This is a sector that needs
immediate action and no passive pondering. In this context,
apart from the well-known media sources, unorthodox means like
the country-wide spread network of mosques could also be used
to inculcate awareness. This needs a revolutionary zeal.
The canal system is also proving to be a graveyard of water
obtained with great labour has not been maintained. The lack
of maintenance and over-use has taxed the capacity of one of
the world's oldest canal systems resulting in low yield. It
contributes to several difficulties instead of solutions it
meant to deliver. According to an estimate of Pakistan's
Ministry of Water and Power, about 35 million acre-feet of
water, equal to the capacity of six Tarbela reservoirs, was
lost due to the redundant nature of this irrigation system
annually. The result is obvious. Apart from the loss of
precious water resources, it increases water logging and
salinity in the region. While a National Drainage Programme (NDP)
is in place to reduce such obstacles, lack of a coherent
development strategy is blocking the way of potential
restoration.
The reason of the NDP's launch was perhaps the World Bank's
observation that a privatised irrigation system was the
panacea of the dire situation. Since its launch, the Programme
has focused on several such major issues. But as is observed
by the civil society and the donor agencies, such grand ideas
are incompatible to the poor and mostly uneducated farmers. It
is fatally wrong to think that these people can manage the
watercourses themselves without the government-sponsored
training and substantial investment. Also there is absolutely
no mechanism to stop corruption in this field.
Interestingly, as a result of the leakage and poor drainage
system, the water table is falling in most parts of the
country. In Balochistan underground aquifers are dropping at
3.5 meters annually, and will extinguish in the next 15 years.
Here, the drainage processes have sapped all major water
sources as there the usage of tube wells is being given
priority over traditional methods. Moreover, the tubewells as
compared to the traditional method, do not offer any incentive
for judicious consumption and storage of water.
When one mentions these things to the distinguished members of
the cabinet or associates of the government, their first
reaction is absolutely opposite. Most of them would feel proud
to tell him of the present government's 'achievements'.
It is true that the present regime has tried to give some
solace to the smaller provinces by the reconstitution of the
IRSA and urging Punjab to make some concessions to the smaller
provinces in its share of water, which the latter has done.
Yet such measures can only manage day-to-day crises and do not
resolve the underlying disputes. The potential of the case can
hardly be over-looked but being ignored by the rulers.
The crisis has attracted a flurry of discussions. One of the
most highlighted solutions is the effectual rationing of the
resources and the need to avoid the mis-allocation of
supplies. Some are convinced that low profit crops should be
avoided and expensive crops should be encouraged for
cultivation since they also need less water.
Others are keen to talk of the Latin American model of water
markets in Pakistan. In the Latin American countries, like
Chile and Mexico, entrepreneurs can buy the rights of water
distribution and consumption. This way more finance is pooled
for development and hence it meets the growing demand. It also
increases the judicious consumption of water as those farmers
who buy water know its real worth and therefore consume it
more economically.
Then the argument further points how much technological
advancement can take place in the context of Pakistan.
Tradable water rights hence would facilitate, according to the
argument, the transfer of irrigation systems to the users on
the manifestation of their responsibility. Since it is the
most favoured argument by the donor agencies, it is considered
that to codify clear legislation, take the people into
confidence on the issue and then to support such associations
and organisations to nurture into viable structures.
This demand, however, display the real weakness of the
argument. First, if there is already no such demand being
voiced in the market, it becomes too risky and taxing a job
for the government to do. Then it must also be considered that
in a country where effective organisations are under-invested,
who is going to take risks.
On the other hand, those who propound these ideals, ignore two
key differences between countries of Latin America and
Pakistan. First, that those countries may have faced a corrupt
bureaucracy, but on the contrast the nascent capitalism in
Pakistan is also not pure of corruption. Secondly the local
gentile links like Biraderi and caste systems can also
increase problems.
Family rivalries can become a disturbing reality as the affluent ones make
a bid to block the water supplies to the poor opponent.
Investment in the 'water-efficient crops' can be discussed in
cabinet meetings and cannot be enforced. Pakistani farmers
have a long experience of cultivating usual crops. Asking them
to start afresh can hardly be realistic.
On the last Friday, the police arrested activists protesting
against construction of Greater Thal Canal. The government did
not try to solve the issue democratically. The leaders of
various political and nationalist partiesconsider the project
as a conspiracy to destroy Sindh and disintegrate Pakistan.
There is no alternative to the government's strong policies to
alleviate the dire circumstances. The need becomes serious
when one looks on the experience of the private sector. Any
idealistic plans can only make one laugh and weep. At every
cost, the government must work on realistic projectsand
contemplate on tangible plans. It should be realised that it
is not agriculture alone.
In Thar, people are suffering due to drought. Recently, the
government used artificial means for rain, but such supplies
only provide a momentary relief. For permanent results,
onemust resort to the time-tested techniques. Time is running
out and if available sources and options are not exploited,
the chance to recover may disappear for good.
The Dam debate
Some eccentrics have rightly called Pakistan a graveyard of
ambitious projects. Most prominent among the projects - those
stay waiting under the skin of time for serious consideration
of the policy makers - is the Kalabagh Dam. Most of the time,
it is mentioned in negative context. Is it all about
controversy or there is any serious potential in it to reduce
water crisis?. A clear verdict can only be given after due
consideration on the scope, extent and the need for the
project.
Every year water channels are swollen and inundation takes
place. Often this takes shape of cataclysmic floods. Thus the
loss caused is due to the lack of control over the water
resources available to the country. While water recklessly
gets wasted in floods and finally by flowing in the ocean,
water needs of the tillers remain unfulfilled. Lack of
facility to control water wastes is a golden opportunity of
obtaining hydro-electricity from it and it can be a
substantial invest in the energy deficit. It is worth
considering that Pakistan is forced to import about 3000 MW
thermal electricity from foreign companies for domestic use
whereas only the Indus has the potential to produce about
30,000 MW per anum of hydro-electricity, almost 17000 MW more
than our estimated consumption. Also the need to harness this
increasing potential, three water dams are marred by severe
sedimentation and silt. Before these dams are choked, there is
a pressing need to build new dams.
One option is the Kalabagh Dam. It can play a pivotal role for
the nation's irrigation system. The foremost contribution of
the project will be to replace the storage capacity lost as a
result of sedimentation in the three other dams. Moreover, it
will provide additional storage to meet water shortages and
regulating water on mutual agreement between the provinces
especially during the Kharif sowing period.
Meanwhile, several quarters are opposing the project. This
opposition is based on genuine fear of loss of fertility,
desiccation and at places of water logging. Interestingly, the
updated project plan has taken into cognisance all such fears
and to a substantial extent tried to alleviate them.
Let us take a
blow-by-blow estimate of these fears.
NWFP has all the fears that an upper riparian province can
fear of. Already playing a host to the major existing dams,
the province fears that with the construction of this Dam, the
historical flooding of the Peshawar valley will increase
monstrously and adversely affect the local fertility. The
authorities aver that regardless of the construction of the
Dam, the flooding takes place because, after running in the
open channel, the water of the Indus has to cross a gorge at
Attock which causes the flooding.
Even in the absence of the Dam, no assurance can be given against floods.
There is a need of a separate upstream Dam in Swat to
alleviate the suffering of the local populace. Moreover, the
reservoir level has been reduced by 10 feet to 915 above MSL
reducing further the chances of floods particularly for
Nowshera.
The opposition also perceives that owing to the blockage of
the drains, water logging may take place, and in addition to
that, a huge chunk of cultivable land would be submerged. The
proposed reservoir level of the dam is much lower than any of
the areas feared to be badly affected. Moreover, out of the
total 27500 acres of land, the irrigate land would be only
3000 acres - 2900 acres of the Punjab and 100 acres of NWFP.
The possibility of population displacement is another
apprehension. It is a must that a large chunk of population to
be displaced for developmental projects of national
proportion. However, a rich rehabilitation and compensation
project can definitely restore the pre-dam life standards to
the affectees in very able manner.
Sind's objections are reflective of the fears of a lower
riparian province. The most horrible picture portrayed is of
Sindh turning into a desert. It has rightly been mentioned by
the administration that dams do not consume water, they only
preserve it. Tarbela is an ideal example, which did not reduce
the level of diversions to the provinces rather increased them
as control was gained on water.
Some fear that the lands - called Sailaba that are cultivated
at the banks of river and creeks - will lose their fertility
and adversely affect the local economy. Although the Sailaba
is not high yield producer, it will not be affected by the
Dam's construction as the high flood peaks will continue to
come without any detrimental impact. Then the idea of high
level outlets is also being propagated by a few. It must be
noted here that any such construction is not possible owing to
the lack of viability.
Doubts regarding increased sea intrusion are also misplaced.
The construction of the Dam is totally irrelevant to the sea
intrusion. No such thing will occur due to this construction.
There is a fear that the sea intrusion into the land water
table may spoil the quality of land. This again is not true as
there is very little chance of this occurrence and even if
there is any, that stands negligible.
Many of these fears are so forcefully advertised in the
vernacular press and the speeches of the local nationalist
leader that one starts taking these as serious threats to
inter-provincial harmony. It is due to lack of serious efforts
on the part of the government that such myths creep into
people's mind. The government needs to work hard to develop
national consensus on this issue and pool as many resources as
possible to take immediate action. If such issues are
neglected for a long time, inaction can hamper the national
morale and trust. It may affect our food security and
agricultural produce for obvious reasons. If more time is
wasted due to the fear of petty politics, outcome can be
really disastrous.
Courtesy
Nation March
24, 2002
Views presented
here are of those of the writer and Pakissan.com is not liable
them.
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