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Special
Reports/Water Crisis |
Down stream Kotri:
constitutional position
By Zulfiqar Halepoto
With every
passing day,the controversy over the construction of the new
reservoirs on Indus is gaining momentum and despite the claims
of President of Pakistan to have settled the dispute of the
Greater Thal Canal (GTC) and the Kalabagh Dam (KBD) , the
opposition in Sindh and other small provinces has decided to
turn the anti-GTC and KBD movement in to a "regime-change
movement".
 Both
the technical and the parliamentary committees on water
resources have failed to even create an impression that these
committees are made for the resolution of water conflict.
With the already set agenda on the plate, it seems, these
committees have nothing new to offer to small provinces. The
lack of coordination between the committees of Senator Nisar
Memon and A.N.G Abbasi has generated a theory saying that
there are differences of opinion and gaps in the perceptions
of the "political" and the "technical" minds appointed for the
purpose.
The decision of the parliamentary committee to appoint local
firms/consultants for the study of down stream Kotri to
address the issue of sea intrusion and other environmental
damages has further aggravated Sindh's concern as it was
called a decision in violation of the CCI decisions and the
1991 Accord.
Constitutional position: The Section 7 of the 1991 accord
says; "The need for certain minimum escapages to sea, below
Kotri, to check sea intrusion was recognized.
Sindh held the view that the optimum level was 10 million acre
feet (maf), which was discussed at length, while other studies
indicated lower/higher figures. It was, therefore, decided
further that studies be undertaken to establish the minimal
escapage needs down stream Kotri".
On the other hand, two more government documents, '10-years
Perspective Development Plans 2001-11' and the '3-years
Development Programme 2001-4,", the quantity of 10 maf has
been recognized till the studies on the subject are completed.
This study had to be completed within one year as directed by
the CCI in its meeting held on September 16th, 1991, but it
has not yet been started due to Punjab that wants one-line
terms of reference (TOR).
On October 25th, 2003, during the meeting with the water and
irrigation experts, technocrats, the President directed that
the study must be carried out without any delay and in the
mean time 10 maf be ear-marked for the escapages below Kotri.
Now after 13 years, the government has decided to carry on a
study by connecting it with the study of three rivers sold out
to India. Sindh maintains that the decision was illegal and
against the spirit of 1991 accord.
 Myth
of 35 maf: The federal government, Punjab and Wapda are of the
opinion that a huge quantity of about 35 maf is flowing into
sea on an average which can be utilized by building new dams,
canals and storages, like the Greater Thal Canal, Kalabagh,
Bhasha and Scardu dams. The important thing to remember in
this context is that the water going into the sea also
includes:
* unutilised part of the existing allocations/ commitments
under the Water Accord (12 maf);
* flow from eastern rivers allocated to India for its
exclusive use (8.7 maf);
* unutilised portion of India's entitlement on western river
(4.8 maf);
* 10 maf provisionally earmarked in the Water Accord, 1991,
for outflow to sea;
* 20.42 being an average flow of the Kabul River share for the
period from 1979-80 up to 2002-2003, with minimum 11.17 maf
and maximum 34.24 maf. ( The President has indicated that this
figure as 8 maf as possibly used by Kabul);
* 3 maf for Mangla raising;
* 2.24 allocation sanctioned by Ecnec for LBOD project.
After accounting for all these factors, there remains no
surplus water for construction of any large, conventional or
carry-over dam on Indus. On the contrary, there is a severe
deficit of water which is around 14 maf.
The quantity of outflow to sea has been progressively reduced,
particularly after construction of barrages, dams and link
canals following the signing of Indus Water Treaty, 1960.
The actual outflow to sea at the time of independence was
about 100 maf, which has been reduced to 36 maf. For the last
four years it has been less than two maf.
An official report says that fresh water flow of Indus River
has been reduced from 150 million acre feet (maf) to 0.72 maf
last year. Experts say that there has been virtually no sweet
water flow in the sea last year, which signals an acceleration
in the pace of the devastating phenomenon in the coastal areas
of the province.
The duration of the flow has also been reduced to less than
two months and that too during the high flood years. Even this
quantity is dwindling further as the unutilised allocations
are being harnessed.
Under the provisions of the Water Accord, 1991, 10 maf has
been provisionally earmarked for outflow to sea pending
further studies to be undertaken to establish the needs of
minimum escapages down stream Kotri. However, no study has
been initiated even after 13 years of signing the accord due
to objections raised by Punjab.
 However,
the IUCN, an international organization based in Pakistan, has
worked out the annual requirements for the outflow to sea for
environmental sustenance to be 27 maf.
The quantity of even 10 maf provisionally allocated under the
accord is available only for 24 out of 72 years as calculated
under the title, 'Kharif availability'.
Thus it is clear that the required quantity of water for the
substance of the environment cannot become available under the
circumstances. It is not possible that this position can be
improved by denying the allocations/commitments of the
operational projects or by leaving the storages unfilled.
However, it is important that at least further deterioration
in the ecological conditions must be prevented. The best that
can be done to save the environment from complete devastation
is to plan future projects so that the minimum required
discharge of 300,000 cusecs is available for outflow to sea at
least for as much time as it is available, after meeting the
current Kharif demand.
The whole of Sindh in general and Indus Delta in particular
has suffered because of the Indus Basin Treaty and the
construction of Tarbela Dam and other barrages.
In view of these facts, Sindh is justified to demand
compensation for the out-of-proportion damage caused to it, as
a consequence of the Indus Treaty and its follow-up actions.
Time has come that justice should be done to Sindh.
Ecological considerations: Under para 7 of the water accord
1991 the need for certain minimum esca pages to sea down
stream Kotri to check sea intrusion was recognized.
 A
tentative figure of 10 MAF has been indicated in the accord
pending further studies to establish minimal escapages down
stream Kotri. The documents "Ten Years Perspective Development
Plan 2001-11 & Three Years Development Programme 2001-4"
issued by the Planning Commission indicates a figure of 10 maf
to be earmarked before any future development schemes/projects
can be considered.
CCI decision: Recently the parliamentary committee on water
resources has decided to conduct three studies on the subject
including the environmental study related to down stream
Kotri. This is a clear and blatant violation of CCI decision.
The parliamentary committee is a recommendatory body, which
can not take decision against the express decision/ directives
of the CCI. Moreover the same item of down stream Kotri also
falls within the purview of Technical Committee on water
resources. As per the directives of the president both
committees have to work in close coordination.
The decision of the parliamentary committee without consulting
the technical committee is a violation of the President's
directives. The studies are being let out to some local
consultants, with shady track record, though the CCI
directive/decision has asked for the appointment of
"international panel of experts.".
Courtesy :
The Dawn
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Pakissan.com;
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