WASHINGTON (January 22 2004): The US Agriculture Department's attache in Islamabad released the following report, dated January 12, on the outlook for Pakistan's cotton crop.

MY 2004/05 total cotton area is forecast to expand, as higher projected returns for cotton should attract land from sugarcane production.

MY 2004/05 total cotton production is forecast at 1.96 Million Metric Tons, based on greater availability of better quality production inputs coupled with higher average yields.

Area: MY 2004/05 cotton area is forecast at 3.2 million hectares, up 4 percent over the MY 2003/04 area estimate.

Higher returns for cotton relative to competing crops coupled with major problems farmers encountered marketing the current sugarcane crop - delayed payments from sugar mills, continued depressed market for sugarcane (whose price declined 10 percent in 2003/04 following a 50 percent drop in 2002/03), should encourage diversion of additional acreage toward cotton production in the new year.

Unlike for sugarcane and rice (alternate crops for cotton), in MY 2003/04 farmers received good returns on seed cotton.

The farm-gate price for MY 2003/04 seed cotton is up 40 percent over the MY 2002/03 level, averaging between Rs 1,050-1,400 per maund (37.324 kilograms) or about 21 cents per lb at the current exchange rate of USD 1.00 - Rupees 57.50.

YIELD: MY 2003/04 national average yield is estimated at 550 kilograms per hectare, 2 percent below the MY 2002/03 national average and 8 percent lower than the five-year average yield.

Exceptionally unfavourable rains in September 2003, during a critical stage of production, spurred bollworm infestation and hampered harvest efforts.

MY 2004/05 yields are projected to exceed current output levels based on: (a) increased plantings of virus-tolerant and early-maturing varieties, (b) adequate fertiliser application, and (c) more than adequate supplies of high quality pesticides.

Assuming late season weather to be better than last year (in reference to late season unusually heavy rains), MY 2004/05 cotton yields are expected to average 550-650 kilograms per hectare.

PRODUCTION: MY 2004/05 cotton output is forecast at 1.96 MMT, based on projected increases in planted area, better inputs, higher yields and the absence of irrigation problems instigated by drought conditions during recent crop cycles.

Courtesy Business Recorder