ISLAMABAD (January 06 2004): Cotton production has shown sharp decline as total arrival recorded as on December 31, 2003 was 8.382 million bales against 9.736 million bales of corresponding period last year, and ginners expect only 5 to 6 lacs bales more from the third pick, which may take net production for the current year close to 9 million bales.

Third pick roughly adds 0.8 million to the grand total.

In such a case, Pakistan would need around 2.5 million imported bales to meet its requirement as the consumption for 2003-04, was estimated at 11.5 million bales by the industry.

Ginners have 1.876 million bales in their stocks against 2.150 million for the same period last year.

The arrival has vindicated the ginners and growers point of view, who contested the first official estimate of 10.5 million bales at the very beginning of the season.

They were of the view that the officials had set the target without taking ground realities into account and crop was much less than the projected total.

Khawaja M. Shoaib, a progressive grower from Multan, strongly believes that some people in their official position were grinding a particular group's axe, to give it undue benefit.

He estimated crop volume at 9 million bales.

Shoaib is unable to understand as to how the officials in Islamabad can link smaller crop's phenomenon to China, when India, our neighbour, was getting 5 percent better crop this year.

Cotton production fell by four percent by January 1, 2004, indicating less availability for domestic industry and more demand with higher prices to continue.

Cotton brokers and ginners said phutti from Sindh was still travelling towards Punjab to fetch better price.

This practice has kept cotton output of Punjab higher than the actual production.

Good quality cotton is getting a price of Rs 3400 per maund which is much higher than last year.

The prices are higher in anticipation of low production and higher rates in international market where American cotton is being quoted at 75 cents per pound.

Courtesy Business Recorder