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Govt expects wheat yield to exceed target
LAHORE, April 15: The Punjab government expects
that the wheat yield may exceed the target of 16
million tons. According to the second assessment
of the agriculture department, which had been
based on reports of its crop reporting wing, the
province may cross the target by at least 100,000
tons.
"It is a highly conservative estimate," an
official of the Punjab government said on
Wednesday. He said that this year the agriculture
department had been very careful in assessing crop
size because of last year's debacle and subsequent
food crisis in the country.
The department compared all the crop yield
contributing factors to that of the last few
years, specially 2000 when the country had a
bumper crop. All factors were found to be
favourable except for the temperature, which went
up by 5 degrees.
Around 11 per cent more DAP was used this year.
Similarly, coverage of herbicide went up
substantially. Water availability was better than
the last few years; rains in the beginning of the
year further eased the pressure. Use of certified
seed also went up by a few notches. The assessment
was based on all these factors and early
harvesting signs.
Harvesting started mostly in the southern part of
the Punjab and would extend to the central part in
the next few days. There has been no reports of
grain shrivelling from any part of the province.
The department also knew that damage could be done
to grain and had been waiting anxiously for damage
assessment. "Luckily, the crop seems to have
escaped any substantially damage and is healthy,"
the official claimed.
The Punjab Food Department claimed to have
launched its daily survey of the crop cutting. On
the basis of the reports from its district
officials involved in procurement process, the
department maintained that crop size would go up
to 16.4 million tons.
Food department sources said that the reports from
the areas where harvesting was in full swing
suggested an increase of five to six maunds per
acre, specially in the southern Punjab. "If the
central Punjab follows the trend, the country
could expect a bumper crop, " the sources said,
but suggested "Let's wait for next reports.
"Another hope is the price factor. It was around
Rs380 per 40kg, but now ranging between Rs240 and
360. It shows that farmers and private sector know
the size of the crop and are bracing themselves
for the affects of the healthy crop," they
claimed.
The pace of procurement had also been encouraging,
they said and added: "During the last four days,
it was almost doubling on a daily basis. Till
April 13, the department had procured 35,000 tons
while the Passco around 23,000 tons. Both agencies
are picking the pace and hoping the trend to
continue."
Of the total production of 16.4 million tons, that
the department is expecting, around 7 million tons
would become 'tradable surplus.' The private
sector, the food department and the Pakistan
Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation (Passco)
would compete for the seven million tons, they
said.
The private sector secured around Rs12.5 billion
for commodity procurement from the State Bank.
"Even if it adds Rs4 billion from its own pocket,
it would not be able to purchase more than 1.8
million tons, leaving around 5.2 million tons for
the food department and the Passco.
"The combined target of the two for current year
is no more than 4.7 million tons -- 3.5 million
tons for the food department and 1.22 million tons
for the Passco from the Punjab. It still leaves
some 500,000 tons for market manoeuvring," they
said.
The DAWN |
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Pakissan.com; Advisory Point
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