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Agri, industrial growth to surpass expectations      
      
 
KARACHI, March 31: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said here Tuesday the overall agriculture sector remained positive during the first half of the current fiscal year despite the decline in the cotton crop and the impact of the bird flu crisis.

In its second quarterly report, the central bank said improvement in agriculture production was mainly due to more efforts by the farmers to improve productivity by capitalising on good agri-product prices, improved water availability and more efficient credit disbursement by banks.

The report lauded the performance of commercial banks for higher disbursement of loans for the agriculture sector, which was Rs 32.8 billion in the first half of current fiscal year and it is expected that credits disbursement to the agri-sector will surpass the target of Rs 65.6 billion by the end of fiscal year 2004. It said the recovery of agriculture loans registered an across-the-board improvement during the first half of the current fiscal, which was 24.4 percent higher than the recovery made during the corresponding period in the preceding fiscal year.

The central bank said another major reason for the higher agriculture produce is availability of water during most of the Kharif and Rabi crops due to better rainfalls and added good monsoon rains helped avert the near drought situation and the water availability further improved through timely winter rains.

The aggregate availability of 91.0 million acre feet (MAF) during the crop year of current fiscal year was 11.0 percent higher than in the corresponding period the preceding year.

But the report said aggregate canal head water availability remained in deficit at only 88.0 percent of that in normal years, while the water shortage in Rabi was about 31.1 percent of normal despite the fact that all the water reservoir were filled with capacity.

Major crops: The central bank said important crops that contribute to about 90.0 percent share in major crops which includes cotton, rice, sugarcane and wheat, and highlights that total area of cultivation of increased 3.6 percent during the fiscal year 2004.

While the highest increase was recorded in the rice crops, the area of cultivation for sugarcane declined due to number of reasons including low pries. Unlike the cotton, rice and wheat crops the prices of sugarcane settled at the previous year’s level.

Similarly the total fertiliser off-take during the Rabi season of current fiscal year increased 10.6 percent to 3.1 million tonnes from 2.9 million tonnes in the preceding fiscal year.

Industrial production: The report said industrial production strongly surged during the first half of current fiscal year with an increase of 12.6 percent compared to growth of 5.1 per cent recorded in the same period last fiscal year.

This performance was dominated by the very strong growth by both, large scale manufacturing (LSM) and electricity generation. Industrial growth was witnessed in most month of the first half of the current fiscal but it registered a decline of 1.1 percent in November 2003 due to various factors including delay in sugarcane crushing season, temporary supply glut that led to slow down in POL refining operation due to Ramzan followed by the Eid holidays.

Demand for furnace oil also declined due to substation of thermal with hydel power and greater availability of gas. While the export of furnace oil from Pakistan has not yet started.

The report said that a further analysis shows that the overall large scale manufacturing growth during first half of current fiscal year remained well above 10 percent even if high performers such as sugar, automobile and electronics are excluded from the calculations.

Consumer financing: Consu-mer financing for auto mortgage, housing finance and personal loans, higher farm income and lower interest rates have largely contributed in raising domestic consumption.

The impact of higher domestic consumption was particularly visible in the production of consumer durables, cement and other related industries such as paints, glass, basic metals, industrial chemicals, tyres and tubes, packaging material.

The production of textile also kept pace with the growth in most other LSM sub-sector despite higher cotton prices, besides there has been a remarkable growth of 17.8 percent in pharmaceutical products during the first half of current fiscal, compared to decline of 0.5 percent in the same period last fiscal year.


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