ISLAMABAD (February 06 2004): Cotton production is likely to fall short of the target as the arrival at the ginneries as on January 31 was recorded at 9.2 million bales against 8.9 million bales of January 15.

The ginners expect around 0.3 million bales more in February, the last month of the picking season, which can take the total to 9.5 million bales. The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) is expected to announce the production figure on February 18.PCGA Vice Chairman Haji Ibrahim said that the arrival figures were vindictive of ginners' point of view, who contested the official estimates at an earlier stage and estimated crop production at 9.5 million bales.

The ginners were of the view that the officials always depend on paper exercises, while making projections for any crop.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) had set a target of 10.5 million cotton bales for the current year. This was strongly opposed by the ginners and growers on the ground that the official estimates were unachievable in the wake of shrinking crop sowing area and intense pest attacks.

This created controversy between various stakeholders of cotton sector over crop volume for the current year.

The officials of the Food Ministry and other concerned departments kept on repeating their claim that the crop volume would be over 10 million bales, as its prospects were much bright, but they secretly scaled down crop target from 10.5 to 10 million bales.

The ginners who expected cotton production for the current season between 9.5 and 9.6 million bales rejected the officials revised estimate.

Ibrahim said that acceptance of ginners point of view regarding crop volume could avoid controversy between different parties to the issue. He said availability of reliable data on cotton production and consumption could help in giving true picture of the entire sector.

They thought govt should guide exporters to boost much needed foreign exchange earnings. The experts, however, had reservations that only govt should set up textile institute to produce skilled workers.

How rich govt is or how fat the exchequer remains, should be in the knowledge of all who are duty bound to pay taxes.

The word is not loud, but Adamjee and Dawoods did make some contribution, while nationalisation mired the more such institutions in offing. If government for any reason cannot serve the purpose, today industrialists have the resources to pour into building schools, colleges, institutes and universities.

Waiting mainly for the govt to come forward means a long hiatus, and during this period billions would be lost.

One such example is that for several years export earning has remained stuck at $8 billion or so. Had network of training schools been set up skilled workers would not only have catered to the needs of local industries but would have served abroad and contributed huge earnings.

Time is up, serious thinking is needed that infra-structure, institutes and colleges are built up and improved so that mills are not left starving for govt or the private sector fails to attend to the immediate and gainful projects.

COTTON POLICY: Thank God hope has been expressed that a non-conventional cotton policy is being announced next month. One can safely hope that will shed the recurring weakness and stale odour.

One of the recurring unwanted phenomena is the release of cotton estimate by every interest. In America all players have freedom to pronounce but the USDA's figures are by and large accepted.

In Pakistan knowledgeable circles said they witness a skirmish like episode right from the sowing of cotton crop till the last scratch has been disposed off.

Unless individual interests are sacrificed for the sake of sagging economy and country, $8 billion will continue to be the export earning ceiling. The efforts were on to convince related people about cotton production at 8.5 million bales against official estimate of nearly 11 million bales.

The pressure built up; the official estimate has been scaled down to 10 million bales and authorities were firm further cut in the target was certainly not possible.

The sellers are now making up the production saying it was now expected 9.2 to 9.5 million bales.

REASON: Second sowing has matured. Whenever there is a vast difference between private and official estimate, there is always discrepancy, sources said, created in standard weight of 170 kg repacked arbitrarily at 165.5 or even less weight.

A recent report hinted that sales tax collectorate has come up with clear indication that this way, Rs 20 billion sales tax has been evaded.

The new policy, it is hoped, will tackle such problems effectively along with making a firm bid to give a strong message for creating a culture of contamination free cotton by growers, and ginners and buyers must pay a reasonable price.

And of course, rampant policy change should be a matter of past to see things on an even keel.

Courtesy Business Recorder