Commodity prices may continue decline
in 2015
By: WB Report
This
year may well see a rare occurrence for world commodity
markets.
A decline in all nine key
commodity price indices, says the World Bank’s latest
commodity markets outlook report issued from Washington.
While oil prices have seen
the most dramatic decline, the third largest since World War
II, other commodities have also been gradually weakening in
recent months.
And this broad-based
weakness is expected to continue throughout 2015, before
beginning a modest turn around in 2016.
In oil markets, a “perfect
storm” of conditions has led to a plunge in prices since
mid-2014: growth in unconventional oil production, decline
in demand, appreciation of the US dollar, receding
geopolitical risks.
And a major redirection
towards maintaining market share rather than targeting
prices by the world’s oil cartel, Organisation of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Oil prices have dropped 55
percent in seven months, from the most recent high of $108
per barrel in mid-June 2014 to $47 two days ago.
Should the current slide
continue, it could surpass the previous records of a 7-month
decline of 67 percent, set in 1985/86, and a 75 percent drop
in 2008.
In addition, the World Bank’s
three industrial commodity price indices – energy, metals
and minerals, and agricultural raw materials.
Experienced near identical
declines between early 2011 and the end of 2014, of more
than 35 percent each, and will continue to contract this
year.
Prices of precious metals are
also expected to decline by 3 percent in 2015, on top of the
12 percent decline seen in 2014.
Again, ample supplies, weak
demand, and a strengthening US dollar have weighed on prices
of these commodities as well.
Food commodity prices, which have declined by 20 percent
since 2011, are projected to drop by a further 4 percent in
2015, given that current good crop prospects for grains,
edible oils and meals, and beverages (led by coffee) in the
2014/15 season.
“Global supply and demand
conditions have conspired to generate lower price
expectations for all nine of the World Bank’s commodity
price indices.
An extremely rare
occurrence,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s
Development Prospects Group. The proximate causes of the
steep drop in oil prices, however, have two key similarities
with one previous episode.
“Both the current oil price collapse and the one experienced
in 1985/86 followed an increase in oil production from
unconventional sources and OPEC’s abandonment of price
targeting,” said John Baffes, Senior Economist in the World
Bank’s Development Prospects Group.
The current forecast sees oil prices averaging $53 per
barrel in 2015, 45, percent lower than in 2014.
The weakness in oil prices is
likely to impact trends in other commodity prices, in
particular those of natural gas, fertilizers, and food
commodities.
Metal prices are forecast to drop by more than 5 percent in
2015, while more moderate declines are foreseen for
fertilizers and precious metals.
A pullback of nearly 3
percent in precious metal prices will result mainly from
waning interest by institutional investors. The moderation
in natural gas prices is expected to lead to a 2 percent
decrease in fertilizer prices.
By 2016, a recovery in the
prices of some commodities is likely to be underway,
although the increases will be small compared to the depths
already reached.
March, 2015
Source: Pakistan
Today