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World
Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates
WHEAT:
Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are unchanged
from last month as no changes are made to supplies or usage.
The projected price range is narrowed by 5 cents on either end
to $3.00 to $3.50.
Projected 2004/05 global wheat production and usage are up
slightly but stocks are unchanged from last month. At 610.6
million tons, this year’s crop is up nearly 2 million tons
from last month and exceeds the record of 610 million tons
produced in 1997/98. Foreign production is up nearly 2 million
tons from last month and is nearly 66 million tons above last
year. Noteworthy increases in production from last month are
projected for Ukraine (up 1.5 million tons), Romania (up 1.2
million tons), and the EU-25 (up nearly 1 million tons). These
increases are partially offset by lower crops in Kazakhstan
(down 2 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and
Uzbekistan (down 0.3 million tons).
Global consumption is raised by just over 2 million tons from
last month, with half the increase accounted for by higher
feed use. Relative to last month, the largest increase in use
is a 1-million-ton increase projected for the EU-25, followed
by smaller increases in Ukraine and several other countries of
the FSU- 12. Global imports are nearly unchanged but exports
from Kazakhstan are reduced 1 million tons while exports by
Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, and Uzbekistan are raised.
Projected global ending stocks are unchanged from last month.
However, stocks are raised in Romania (up nearly 1 million
tons) and Ukraine (up 0.5 million tons) while stocks are
lowered by 1 million tons in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan (down 0.7
million tons), and Australia (down 0.5 million tons).
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s outlook for 2004/05 U.S. feed grains is for a
larger total crop and larger ending stocks. Forecast 2004 corn
production is up 38 million bushels from last month to a
record 10,961 million bushels. Forecast 2004 grain sorghum
production is up 7 million bushels. Projected beginning stocks
of 2004/05 corn rise 40 million bushels due to a reduction in
2003/04 exports. With no change in projected 2004/05 corn use,
projected ending stocks rise 77 million bushels from last
month. The larger grain sorghum crop is reflected in increased
2004/05 stocks. The projected price range for corn is down 5
cents on each end from last month to $2.00 to $2.40 per
bushel. For grain sorghum, the projected price range is
lowered by 10 cents on each end to $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel.
Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply and use projections are up
slightly from last month. Ending stocks are also up, due in
part to an increase in beginning stocks. Global production is
raised to a record 959 million tons, up 3 million tons from
last month and over 6 percent larger than 2003/04. Relative to
last month, larger crops are projected for the United States,
the EU- 25 (up nearly 2 million tons), and the Ukraine (up 1.2
million tons) with smaller increases projected for several
other countries. Production is lowered for Russia (down 0.9
million tons), Kazakhstan (down 0.5 million tons), and China
(down nearly 0.5 million tons, mostly sorghum) with smaller
reductions in other countries. Global imports are up
fractionally from last month.
However, larger exports are projected for the Ukraine,
Romania, and Serbia, and smaller exports are projected from
Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Global stocks are
raised nearly 4 million tons from last month and are up 2
million tons from last year. An increase in beginning stocks
contributes 1.3 million tons to the increase in ending stocks
but ending stocks are also up due to larger stocks in the
United States and the EU-25, with smaller increases in several
other countries. Sorghum stocks in China are lowered nearly
0.5 million tons.
RICE:
U.S. rice production in 2004/05 is forecast at a record 221.7
million cwt, fractionally higher than last month. Planted and
harvested area are estimated at 3.364 million acres and 3.334
million acres, respectively (each up 0.5 percent from last
month). Average yield is estimated at a record 6,651 pounds
per acre, down 29 pounds per acre from last month.
Long-grain production is estimated at 162.5 million cwt, up 1
percent from last month, and combined medium and short-grain
production is estimated at 59.2 million cwt, down nearly 3
percent from a month ago. While no changes are made to
domestic and residual use and exports for all rice, slight
changes are made to the by-class projections. Beginning stocks
are lowered from last month. Ending stocks of all rice are
projected at 32.9 million cwt, 3 percent below last month, but
39 percent above 2003/04. The season-average farm price is
projected at $7.00 to $7.50 per cwt, up 25 cents per cwt on
both ends from a month earlier.
On August 27 the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS) estimated August 1 U.S. rice stocks at 23.7 million cwt
(rough-equivalent basis), 1.1 million cwt below last month's
projection, and 3.1 million cwt below a year earlier. NASS
estimated rough rice stocks at 19.5 million cwt and milled
rice stocks at 2.95 million cwt.
Global 2004/05 rice production and ending stocks projections
are raised from last month while consumption, imports, and
exports are lowered slightly. Production is raised for the
United States, Indonesia, and Egypt and lowered for Australia.
Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 68.8 million tons,
0.7 million tons above last month. The increase in stocks is
due mainly to larger stocks projected for Vietnam and Egypt.
Exports are lowered for Vietnam and Australia. Imports are
lowered for Afghanistan and Indonesia, but raised for Saudi
Arabia and North Korea.
OILSEEDS:
U.S. oilseed stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 6.3 million
tons, unchanged from last month, as lower oilseed production
is offset by reduced use. U.S. oilseed production is projected
at 87.7 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month,
reflecting a production decline for soybeans. Soybean
production is forecast at 2,836 million bushels, down 41
million bushels from last month’s projection based on lower
yield prospects, particularly in the upper Midwest. Projected
soybean exports are reduced 30 million bushels due to reduced
global import demand. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million
bushels due to lower soybean meal export prospects. Soybean
ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, unchanged
from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected
at $5.35 to $6.25 compared with $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel last
month, reflecting weaker use and lower corn prices. Soybean
meal prices are projected at $170 to $200 per short ton, down
$10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are
projected at 23.5 to 26.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents per
pound on both ends of the range.
For 2003/04, soybean exports are reduced 5 million bushels to
885 million bushels. Soybean crush is raised 20 million
bushels to 1,535 million bushels, reflecting
stronger-than-expected crush through the summer months.
Soybean stocks are estimated at 105 million bushels, unchanged
from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 380.5
million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign
oilseed production, primarily soybeans and rapeseed, is up 2.6
million tons. Soybean production for India is raised 1.3
million tons to 7 million tons. Area is sharply higher,
reflecting producers’ response to higher prices. Foreign
rapeseed production is increased 1.1 million tons based on
indications of higher yields in the EU-25, primarily in
Germany and Czech Republic. Other changes include increased
sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, Romania, and Hungary,
partially offset by reductions for Italy and China.
Global oilseed trade for 2004/05 is forecast lower this month,
primarily due to smaller soybean imports by China, Egypt, and
Malaysia. Global oilseed ending stocks are increased for both
2003/04 and 2004/05. Soybean ending stocks for 2004/05 are
projected to increase to 51.5 million tons, up 14.2 million
tons from 2003/04.
SUGAR:
Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 41,000
short tons, raw value, from last month, as lower production
more than offsets higher beginning stocks. Beet sugar
production is raised 26,000 tons while cane sugar is lowered
77,000 tons, as reported by processors to the Farm Service
Agency. Florida cane sugar production is unchanged. Sugar use
is unchanged.
For 2003/04, supply is increased 10,000 tons based on
processor production reports, while use is unchanged. Ending
stocks are increased 10,000 tons.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on
trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in
the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and
2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place.
Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.
Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are unchanged.
Meat production forecasts for 2004 are lowered slightly as
increased second-half broiler meat production is offset by
lower beef production. Broiler hatchery data indicate
continued growth in broiler meat production. Beef production
is reduced because the pace of cattle placements and
marketings has been slower than expected. Pork production is
unchanged. The NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be
released September 24, will provide an indication of
producers’ intentions into 2005.
Meat trade forecasts are slightly changed in 2004 and 2005.
Beef imports are raised because of stronger expected shipments
from Canada and Uruguay. Broiler exports are decreased
primarily due to slower-than-expected shipments to Asia.
Price forecasts for 2004 and 2005 are little changed from last
month. The cattle price forecast for 2004 is lowered as prices
have been weaker than expected, and the broiler price forecast
is reduced as broiler supplies are forecast larger. The hog
price forecast is unchanged from last month. Turkey prices are
forecast higher as hatch data continue to point toward lower
production in 2004 and growth is expected to be limited in
2005. The egg price forecast lowered from last month as prices
have been weaker than previously forecast.
The milk production forecast for 2003/04 is raised due to a
slightly larger cow herd and mild summer weather which results
in higher-than-expected milk yields. Production in 2004/05 is
increased from last month based on data pointing to a larger
cow herd than previously forecast. Milk price forecasts for
2003/04 are little changed from last month but are raised for
2004/05. Forecasts for Class III and Class IV milk are higher
compared to last month based on expected strength in product
prices through the first part of the 2004/05 marketing year.
The all-milk price is raised to $13.25-$14.05 per cwt for
2004/05.
COTTON:
The 2004/05 U.S. cotton projections reflect upward revisions
in supply and demand this month. Forecast production is raised
712,000 bales to a record 20.9 million bales. However,
beginning stocks are reduced 100,000 bales to 3.5 million
bales based on a preliminary Bureau of the Census report for
2003/04; thus, the total supply is raised to 24.4 million
bales. Domestic mill use is raised 200,000 bales in both
2003/04 and 2004/05 to reflect additional mill use not
included in previous Census reports. Exports are raised
200,000 bales in 2004/05 to 12.2 million bales. Accordingly,
ending stocks are revised up slightly to 6.1 million bales.
The world cotton projections for 2004/05 show higher
production and stocks compared to last month. Production is
revised up to 107.3 million bales, as increases for the United
States, India, and Uzbekistan are partially offset by
reductions for China and Australia. A slight increase in world
consumption reflects the U.S. change. Changes to world trade
include largely offsetting adjustments for several producing
countries, most notably an increase of 350,000 bales in
imports by China due to smaller forecast production. World
exports are raised slightly, as increases for the United
States, Uzbekistan, and India are partially offset by
reductions for Australia and Brazil. World ending stocks are
increased 2 percent to 40.0 million bales.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World
Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson,
(202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed
on page 35.
APPROVED:
JAMES R. MOSELEY
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
USDA.
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