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Agri Overview 

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates   

WHEAT:
Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are unchanged from last month as no changes are made to supplies or usage. The projected price range is narrowed by 5 cents on either end to $3.00 to $3.50.

Projected 2004/05 global wheat production and usage are up slightly but stocks are unchanged from last month. At 610.6 million tons, this year’s crop is up nearly 2 million tons from last month and exceeds the record of 610 million tons produced in 1997/98. Foreign production is up nearly 2 million tons from last month and is nearly 66 million tons above last year. Noteworthy increases in production from last month are projected for Ukraine (up 1.5 million tons), Romania (up 1.2 million tons), and the EU-25 (up nearly 1 million tons). These increases are partially offset by lower crops in Kazakhstan (down 2 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and Uzbekistan (down 0.3 million tons).

Global consumption is raised by just over 2 million tons from last month, with half the increase accounted for by higher feed use. Relative to last month, the largest increase in use is a 1-million-ton increase projected for the EU-25, followed by smaller increases in Ukraine and several other countries of the FSU- 12. Global imports are nearly unchanged but exports from Kazakhstan are reduced 1 million tons while exports by Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, and Uzbekistan are raised. Projected global ending stocks are unchanged from last month. However, stocks are raised in Romania (up nearly 1 million tons) and Ukraine (up 0.5 million tons) while stocks are lowered by 1 million tons in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan (down 0.7 million tons), and Australia (down 0.5 million tons).

COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s outlook for 2004/05 U.S. feed grains is for a larger total crop and larger ending stocks. Forecast 2004 corn production is up 38 million bushels from last month to a record 10,961 million bushels. Forecast 2004 grain sorghum production is up 7 million bushels. Projected beginning stocks of 2004/05 corn rise 40 million bushels due to a reduction in 2003/04 exports. With no change in projected 2004/05 corn use, projected ending stocks rise 77 million bushels from last month. The larger grain sorghum crop is reflected in increased 2004/05 stocks. The projected price range for corn is down 5 cents on each end from last month to $2.00 to $2.40 per bushel. For grain sorghum, the projected price range is lowered by 10 cents on each end to $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel.

Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply and use projections are up slightly from last month. Ending stocks are also up, due in part to an increase in beginning stocks. Global production is raised to a record 959 million tons, up 3 million tons from last month and over 6 percent larger than 2003/04. Relative to last month, larger crops are projected for the United States, the EU- 25 (up nearly 2 million tons), and the Ukraine (up 1.2 million tons) with smaller increases projected for several other countries. Production is lowered for Russia (down 0.9 million tons), Kazakhstan (down 0.5 million tons), and China (down nearly 0.5 million tons, mostly sorghum) with smaller reductions in other countries. Global imports are up fractionally from last month.

However, larger exports are projected for the Ukraine, Romania, and Serbia, and smaller exports are projected from Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Global stocks are raised nearly 4 million tons from last month and are up 2 million tons from last year. An increase in beginning stocks contributes 1.3 million tons to the increase in ending stocks but ending stocks are also up due to larger stocks in the United States and the EU-25, with smaller increases in several other countries. Sorghum stocks in China are lowered nearly 0.5 million tons.

RICE:
U.S. rice production in 2004/05 is forecast at a record 221.7 million cwt, fractionally higher than last month. Planted and harvested area are estimated at 3.364 million acres and 3.334 million acres, respectively (each up 0.5 percent from last month). Average yield is estimated at a record 6,651 pounds per acre, down 29 pounds per acre from last month.

Long-grain production is estimated at 162.5 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month, and combined medium and short-grain production is estimated at 59.2 million cwt, down nearly 3 percent from a month ago. While no changes are made to domestic and residual use and exports for all rice, slight changes are made to the by-class projections. Beginning stocks are lowered from last month. Ending stocks of all rice are projected at 32.9 million cwt, 3 percent below last month, but 39 percent above 2003/04. The season-average farm price is projected at $7.00 to $7.50 per cwt, up 25 cents per cwt on both ends from a month earlier.

On August 27 the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated August 1 U.S. rice stocks at 23.7 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 1.1 million cwt below last month's projection, and 3.1 million cwt below a year earlier. NASS estimated rough rice stocks at 19.5 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 2.95 million cwt.

Global 2004/05 rice production and ending stocks projections are raised from last month while consumption, imports, and exports are lowered slightly. Production is raised for the United States, Indonesia, and Egypt and lowered for Australia. Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 68.8 million tons, 0.7 million tons above last month. The increase in stocks is due mainly to larger stocks projected for Vietnam and Egypt. Exports are lowered for Vietnam and Australia. Imports are lowered for Afghanistan and Indonesia, but raised for Saudi Arabia and North Korea.

OILSEEDS:
U.S. oilseed stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 6.3 million tons, unchanged from last month, as lower oilseed production is offset by reduced use. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 87.7 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month, reflecting a production decline for soybeans. Soybean production is forecast at 2,836 million bushels, down 41 million bushels from last month’s projection based on lower yield prospects, particularly in the upper Midwest. Projected soybean exports are reduced 30 million bushels due to reduced global import demand. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels due to lower soybean meal export prospects. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, unchanged from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected at $5.35 to $6.25 compared with $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel last month, reflecting weaker use and lower corn prices. Soybean meal prices are projected at $170 to $200 per short ton, down $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 23.5 to 26.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents per pound on both ends of the range.

For 2003/04, soybean exports are reduced 5 million bushels to 885 million bushels. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1,535 million bushels, reflecting stronger-than-expected crush through the summer months. Soybean stocks are estimated at 105 million bushels, unchanged from last month.

Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 380.5 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production, primarily soybeans and rapeseed, is up 2.6 million tons. Soybean production for India is raised 1.3 million tons to 7 million tons. Area is sharply higher, reflecting producers’ response to higher prices. Foreign rapeseed production is increased 1.1 million tons based on indications of higher yields in the EU-25, primarily in Germany and Czech Republic. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, Romania, and Hungary, partially offset by reductions for Italy and China.

Global oilseed trade for 2004/05 is forecast lower this month, primarily due to smaller soybean imports by China, Egypt, and Malaysia. Global oilseed ending stocks are increased for both 2003/04 and 2004/05. Soybean ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected to increase to 51.5 million tons, up 14.2 million tons from 2003/04.


SUGAR:
Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 41,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as lower production more than offsets higher beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is raised 26,000 tons while cane sugar is lowered 77,000 tons, as reported by processors to the Farm Service Agency. Florida cane sugar production is unchanged. Sugar use is unchanged.

For 2003/04, supply is increased 10,000 tons based on processor production reports, while use is unchanged. Ending stocks are increased 10,000 tons.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.

Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are unchanged. Meat production forecasts for 2004 are lowered slightly as increased second-half broiler meat production is offset by lower beef production. Broiler hatchery data indicate continued growth in broiler meat production. Beef production is reduced because the pace of cattle placements and marketings has been slower than expected. Pork production is unchanged. The NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released September 24, will provide an indication of producers’ intentions into 2005.

Meat trade forecasts are slightly changed in 2004 and 2005. Beef imports are raised because of stronger expected shipments from Canada and Uruguay. Broiler exports are decreased primarily due to slower-than-expected shipments to Asia.

Price forecasts for 2004 and 2005 are little changed from last month. The cattle price forecast for 2004 is lowered as prices have been weaker than expected, and the broiler price forecast is reduced as broiler supplies are forecast larger. The hog price forecast is unchanged from last month. Turkey prices are forecast higher as hatch data continue to point toward lower production in 2004 and growth is expected to be limited in 2005. The egg price forecast lowered from last month as prices have been weaker than previously forecast.

The milk production forecast for 2003/04 is raised due to a slightly larger cow herd and mild summer weather which results in higher-than-expected milk yields. Production in 2004/05 is increased from last month based on data pointing to a larger cow herd than previously forecast. Milk price forecasts for 2003/04 are little changed from last month but are raised for 2004/05. Forecasts for Class III and Class IV milk are higher compared to last month based on expected strength in product prices through the first part of the 2004/05 marketing year. The all-milk price is raised to $13.25-$14.05 per cwt for 2004/05.


COTTON:
The 2004/05 U.S. cotton projections reflect upward revisions in supply and demand this month. Forecast production is raised 712,000 bales to a record 20.9 million bales. However, beginning stocks are reduced 100,000 bales to 3.5 million bales based on a preliminary Bureau of the Census report for 2003/04; thus, the total supply is raised to 24.4 million bales. Domestic mill use is raised 200,000 bales in both 2003/04 and 2004/05 to reflect additional mill use not included in previous Census reports. Exports are raised 200,000 bales in 2004/05 to 12.2 million bales. Accordingly, ending stocks are revised up slightly to 6.1 million bales.

The world cotton projections for 2004/05 show higher production and stocks compared to last month. Production is revised up to 107.3 million bales, as increases for the United States, India, and Uzbekistan are partially offset by reductions for China and Australia. A slight increase in world consumption reflects the U.S. change. Changes to world trade include largely offsetting adjustments for several producing countries, most notably an increase of 350,000 bales in imports by China due to smaller forecast production. World exports are raised slightly, as increases for the United States, Uzbekistan, and India are partially offset by reductions for Australia and Brazil. World ending stocks are increased 2 percent to 40.0 million bales.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35.


APPROVED:
JAMES R. MOSELEY
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
USDA. 

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