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Watch
Drought unlikely to
trigger huge Asian grain imports
SINGAPORE: Asia, home to three-fifths of the world's
population, is unlikely to see a sharp rise in grain imports
despite being hit by erratic weather, as stock levels remain
high, a United Nations food official said on Monday.
Although grain production in China, Pakistan, Australia and
North Korea due to drought conditions is expected to be lower,
carryover stocks with some nations from last year would help
tide over the crisis to a large extent, said R.B. Singh,
assistant director-general of the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO).
"I don't really see a sharp rise in grain imports by Asia.
Imports will be there but they will mainly be to replenish the
buffer stocks and not for immediate consumption," Singh, who
is also the FAO's Asia-Pacific regional representative, told
Reuters in a telephone interview from Bangkok.
A net importer of grains, Asia is struggling to keep its
production intact this year due to inclement weather
conditions - with some regions reeling under the impact of
severe drought and others facing floods due to plentiful
monsoon rains.
"The nations in this region that are facing difficult
conditions due to weather are increasingly taking steps to
meet the tough challenges. We have to keep an eye on the rain
situation in China," Singh said. He said China's weather
problems had not only created difficulties for the current
wheat crop but were also going to be a curse for the next
harvesting season.
"Preparation for the next crop is definitely going to be
affected because of the drought," Singh said. According to the
State Statistical Bureau, China's worst drought in more than a
decade was likely to cut its summer grain output by 4.6
percent from last year to 101.9 million tonnes in 2001 -
declining for the third consecutive year. "However, the good
thing is that reports of rice planting in China are good,"
Singh said. He said Pakistan had enough grain stocks to meet
domestic demand despite an expected drop in grain output due
to drought.
"Pakistan might have to resort to some wheat imports but I
think volumes won't be big and that would mainly be to add to
the buffer," Singh said. "Their food reserves are quite
comfortable."
Pakistan's 2000/01 wheat production is estimated at about 19
million tonnes, compared with the previous year's 22 million.
Annual domestic demand is around 20 million tonnes. "As far as
Australia's grain outlook is concerned, I think the drought
will certainly affect their wheat exports but certainly not
their domestic availability," Singh said. "Any shortfall in
their supplies to this region could be met from other
exporters if there is a need," he added.
Australia's national wheat exporter AWB said earlier this
month it expected the 2001/02 wheat crop to be a similar size
to last year's 20.40 million tonnes despite dry weather in
many parts of the wheat belt. But private forecaster
Australian Wheat Forecasters has slashed its forecast of the
crop, to be harvested around the end of the calendar year, by
12 percent to 19.90 million tonnes from 22.65 million tonnes a
month ago.
Singh said damage to the rice crop due to floods in the
eastern Indian state of Orissa - which annually produces about
five million tonnes of rice - was unlikely to affect the
country's ambitious plans to export substantial quantities of
grain this year.
July 24
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